CALIFORNIA
FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2023, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“HOUSING DENSITY REBELLION HAS A CHANCE”
Every
poll shows most California adults favor the housing density laws that have
emerged from the state Legislature with great regularity and fanfare over the
last three years.
Despite those findings, often showing 60 percent or more
in favor, the rebellion against those laws has a decent chance of success.
It’s
a matter of what’s at stake and who will eventually vote on the potential
landmark initiative to cancel out the new laws where they conflict with local
land use ballot measures passed in many cities and counties.
Polling
on housing density laws has usually been done in general terms, with brief
explanations of the new measures not mentioning the instability and constant
variation in need estimates from state government.
Those
surveys often don't distinguish likely voters from residents who aren’t even
registered to vote. Nor do they note whose life savings are invested in their
homes and who is now renting. They also do not mention the changes already
wrought by the new housing laws in many once-bucolic neighborhoods.
But
there’s a way to evaluate who might vote and how they’ll lean if the new
initiative, which states simply that “local land use planning or zoning
initiatives approved by voters shall not be nullified or superseded by state
law,” makes the November 2024 ballot:
Check
out what their stake might be in its outcome.
This
is where things begin to look optimistic for the measure. A new study from the
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reveals that the vast majority of
California’s most regular voters have a large stake in matters of preserving
neighborhood character and ambiance.
Only
39 percent of registered voters have voted in at least five of the last seven
elections, thus making them almost certain to vote next fall in the presidential
election of which this initiative seeks to be part.
Out
of that 39 percent, seven of 10 are 50 or older and seven of 10 are also white.
Fully 68 percent of this cohort own their homes and 55 percent are college graduates.
Taken
together, these facts indicate a very large percentage of those certain to vote
will feel they have a large stake in defeating this measure.
Yes,
for some, laws like the 2021 SB 10, which allows as many as six dwelling units
on virtually all lots that now hold just one home, represent a chance to sell
out to a developer and get rich quickly, as their age and home ownership status
often has provided them significant equity they can now cash out.
But
for the many who plan to stay put the rest of their active lives, neighborhood
stability will be a major interest. The currently proposed initiative is an
effort to assure such stability, even if some call the status quo racist and
exclusionary.
(The
measure is now undergoing the state's normal title and summary process in the
office of state Attorney General Rob Bonta, a firm advocate of the laws this
measure could cancel. Time will reveal the fairness of his work on this and
whether it encounters a legal challenge.)
The
Berkeley IGS study shows homeowners are more likely to vote in large numbers
than any other single California grouping, regardless of race. Hundreds of
thousands of Blacks and Mexican- and Asian-Americans own homes in California
and want to preserve the character of places where they have invested.
Add
to this the utterly whimsical numbers game played by the state’s Department of
Housing and Community Development (HCD), in charge of enforcing the new laws,
which amounts to a one-size-fits-all plan for increasing California’s housing
density in current cities while leaving outlying ex-urban lands largely vacant.
Back
in 2018, Gov. Newsom claimed the state needed to build 3.5 million new
dwellings by 2030, or about 300,000 per year. Even during today’s housing boom,
only a fraction of that much has been built each year since. Meanwhile, HCD has
revised its estimated need, first to 1.8 million, and now to 2.5 million.
All
of which might leave voters scratching their heads, especially those who
already doubt the wisdom of greater density. Put it all together, and this
measure definitely has a chance.
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Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book,
"The Burzynski Breakthrough, The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the
Government’s Campaign to Squelch It" is now available in a soft cover
fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net