CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2023 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“WHAT IF
LAPHONZA BUTLER RUNS?”
The pipe
dream of some Black women in California for the last three years has been
getting one of their number into the United States Senate.
Black
women have been there before, in the persons of Carole Moseley Braun of
Illinois, who served from 1993 to 1999, and California’s own Kamala Harris from
2016 until elected vice president in 2020. But for almost four years after
Harris’ accession to the nation’s nominal No. 2 political job, there were none.
That left
a void Gov. Gavin Newsom three years ago vowed to fill if another vacancy arose
in a California Senate seat – and he named Laphonza Butler quickly after the
pioneering Dianne Feinstein’s death in late September.
Butler
was sworn in less than five days after Feinstein’s demise.
Newsom
thus kept one promise. But by not requiring that Butler commit to being a mere
caretaker, a seat filler, he broke another prior commitment.
Newsomleft
it to Butler to decide whether or not to seek a full term next year, breaking
his commitment to name a mere interim senator.
As of
this writing, Butler had not decided what she'll do.
If she
entered the race, the former head of the EMILY’s List women’s political funding
committee knew, she would be the fourth major Democrat in the race, which was
also reported about to be joined by Steve Garvey, political neophyte and former
all-star first baseman who won pennants with both the Los Angeles Dodgers and
San Diego Padres.
Newsom’s
stated reason for promising to name a caretaker was to avoid interfering in the
ongoing campaign. But a Butler entry into the race held the potential for
changing things radically.
Every
recent poll on that race showed all three Democratic Congress members running
with substantial leads over all Republicans in the field. Those surveys had
Burbank’s Adam Schiff, a longtime nemesis of ex-President Donald Trump, leading
fellow Democrat Katie Porter of Irvine and Oakland’s Barbara Lee, the only
Black person running before the Butler’s appointment.
This
appeared to ensure a Democrat-on-Democrat general election race next fall. But
if Butler were to get in, Democratic votes, especially those going to Lee,
could be further split, potentially opening a path to the runoff for Garvey,
who has more name recognition than anyone in the race not named Schiff.
It may be no accident that Garvey, who has
“explored” a run since last spring, appeared ready to get in only after the
Butler possibility arose.
No statewide primary race with more than three Democratic
contenders has produced an all-Democrat runoff election since California
adopted its Top Two, “jungle primary” system via the 2010 Proposition 14. The
party's voters have been too splintered for that. There appeared a good chance
the pattern would continue if Butler opted to enter the race.
As the former head of the nation’s leading women’s political
funding group, Butler knows all this, but still was pondering the race. She
also had to know that her fairly recent move to Maryland – one she reversed
immediately upon getting Newsom’s nod – would harm her in a California Senate
race.
So a Butler entry into this contest was far from assured.
But there was one other possibility, however slim it appeared:
Lee could drop out and urge supporters to vote for Butler.
This appeared very unlikely even though Lee has run a distant
third in every major poll taken so far, her 7 percent share topping all
Republicans, but trailing far behind Schiff’s 20 percent and Porter’s 17
percent.
Lee, 77, adopted a beaming, almost celebratory look when
Butler was sworn in as a senator by Harris. Her stated goal in running was to
give black women representation in the Senate, and Butler was now there even if
Lee was not.
Political and mathematical reality is that if Lee (or Butler)
wants to avoid diluting Democratic votes to the point where a Republican like
Garvey could make next November’s runoff, this might be about the only open
path. But it would require self-sacrifice from either Lee or Butler and no one
yet knows whether either is capable of that.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias
at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most
Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,"
is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net.
Updated version:
CALIFORNIA FOCUS
1720 OAK STREET, SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA 90405
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2023 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“WHAT LAPHONZA BUTLER SPARED HER FELLOW DEMOCRATS”
The pipe dream of some Black women in California for the last three years has been getting one of their number into the United States Senate.
Black women have been there before, in the persons of Carole Moseley Braun of Illinois, who served from 1993 to 1999, and California’s own Kamala Harris from 2016 until elected vice president in 2020. But for almost four years after Harris’ accession to the nation’s nominal No. 2 political job, there were none.
That left a void Gov. Gavin Newsom three years ago vowed to fill if another vacancy arose in a California Senate seat – and he named Laphonza Butler quickly after the pioneering Dianne Feinstein’s death in late September.
Butler was sworn in less than five days after Feinstein’s demise.
Newsom thus kept one promise. But by not requiring that Butler commit to being a mere caretaker, a seat filler, he broke another prior commitment. Now she has chosen to essentially be the caretaker, seat-filling senator he also promised.
Butler’s decision was a favor not only to Newsom but to all the other Democrats in this Senate race: That includes the three Democratic Congress members running with substantial poll leads over all Republicans in the field.
Every survey has had Burbank’s Adam Schiff, a longtime nemesis of ex-President Donald Trump, leading fellow Democrat Katie Porter of Irvine and Oakland’s Barbara Lee, the only Black person running before the Butler’s appointment. Those polls were all taken before former baseball great Steve Garvey entered the race as a Republican and Donald Trump supporter and before Christina Pascucci, a longtime TV news anchor on Los Angeles station KTLA, joined as a Democrat.
Newsom’s stated reason for promising to name a caretaker was to avoid interfering in the ongoing campaign. But a Butler entry into the race held the potential for changing things radically.
Joint entries by both Butler and Pascucci might have splintered the Democratic vote even more than it now figures to be. What once appeared sure to be a Democrat-on-Democrat general election race next fall could easily have become any of the Democrats facing Garvey. Butler’s contribution to the splintering could have been to divide both the Black female vote now figuring to be Lee’s property and further fracture “we-want-a-female” voters, who still might be split among Lee, Porter and Pascucci.
It may be no accident that Garvey, who had “explored” a run since last spring, actually got in only after the Butler possibility arose.
No statewide primary race with more than three Democratic contenders has produced an all-Democrat runoff election since California adopted its Top Two, “jungle primary” system via the 2010 Proposition 14. The party's voters have been too divided for that. There appeared a good chance the pattern would continue if Butler opted to enter the race. A Republican/Democrat race remains a strong possibility.
As the former head of the nation’s leading women’s political funding group, Butler knew all this, but still spent weeks pondering the race. She also had to know that her fairly recent move to Maryland – one she reversed immediately upon getting Newsom’s nod – would harm her in a California Senate race.
So a Butler entry into this contest was never extremely likely.
But there was one other possibility, however slim it appeared: Lee could have dropped out and urged supporters to vote for Butler.
But that kind of move never materialized, as Lee has hankered for the Senate for many years.
At 77, Lee adopted a beaming, almost celebratory look when Butler was sworn in as a senator by Harris. Lee's stated goal in running was to give black women representation in the Senate, and Butler was now there even if Lee was not.
Perhaps Lee knew all along that if she did not drop out, Butler would. That is, after all, what happened.
Political and mathematical reality is that by not running, Butler avoids diluting Democratic votes to the point where a Republican like Garvey would stand a good chance of making next November’s runoff and possibly squeaking into the Senate.
Even if she were self-aggrandizing, which Butler has never been, that could have assured a future Republican Senate majority, something she has fought against for years.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net.
CALIFORNIA FOCUS
1720 OAK STREET, SANTA MONICA,
CALIFORNIA 90405
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2023 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“WHAT LAPHONZA
BUTLER SPARED HER FELLOW DEMOCRATS”
The pipe
dream of some Black women in California for the last three years has been
getting one of their number into the United States Senate.
Black
women have been there before, in the persons of Carole Moseley Braun of
Illinois, who served from 1993 to 1999, and California’s own Kamala Harris from
2016 until elected vice president in 2020. But for almost four years after
Harris’ accession to the nation’s nominal No. 2 political job, there were none.
That left
a void Gov. Gavin Newsom three years ago vowed to fill if another vacancy arose
in a California Senate seat – and he named Laphonza Butler quickly after the
pioneering Dianne Feinstein’s death in late September.
Butler
was sworn in less than five days after Feinstein’s demise.
Newsom
thus kept one promise. But by not requiring that Butler commit to being a mere
caretaker, a seat filler, he broke another prior commitment. Now she has chosen
to essentially chosen to be caretaker, seat-filling senator he also promised to
name.
Butler’s
decision was a favor not only to Newsom but to all the other Democrats in this
Senate race: That includes the three Democratic Congress members running with
substantial poll leads over all Republicans in the field.
Every survey has had Burbank’s
Adam Schiff, a longtime nemesis of ex-President Donald Trump, leading fellow
Democrat Katie Porter of Irvine and Oakland’s Barbara Lee, the only Black person
running before the Butler’s appointment. Those polls were all taken before
former baseball great Steve Harvey entered the race as a Republican and Donald
Trump supporter and before Christina Pascucci, a longtime TV
news anchor on Los Angeles station KTLA joined as a Democrat.
Newsom’s
stated reason for promising to name a caretaker was to avoid interfering in the
ongoing campaign. But a Butler entry into the race held the potential for
changing things radically.
Joint
entries by both Butler and Pascucci might have splintered the Democratic vote
even more than it now figures to be. What once appeared sure to be a
Democrat-on-Democrat general election race next fall could easily have become any
of the Democrats facing Garvey. Butler’s contribution to the splintering could
have been to divide both the Black female vote now figuring to be Lee’s
property and further divide “we-want-a-female” voters, who still might be split
among Lee, Porter and Pascucci.
It may be no accident that Garvey, who had “explored” a run since last
spring, actually got in only after the Butler possibility arose.
No statewide primary race with more than three Democratic
contenders has produced an all-Democrat runoff election since California
adopted its Top Two, “jungle primary” system via the 2010 Proposition 14. The
party's voters have been too split for that. There appeared a good chance the
pattern would continue if Butler opted to enter the race. A Republican/Democrat
race remains a strong possibility.
As the former head of the nation’s leading women’s political
funding group, Butler knew all this, but still spent weeks pondering the race.
She also had to know that her fairly recent move to Maryland – one she reversed
immediately upon getting Newsom’s nod – would harm her in a California Senate
race.
So a Butler entry into this contest was never extremely
likely.
But there was one other possibility, however slim it appeared:
Lee could have dropped out and urged supporters to vote for Butler.
But that kind of move never materialized, as Lee has hankered
for the Senate for many years.
At 77, Lee adopted a beaming, almost celebratory look when
Butler was sworn in as a senator by Harris. Her stated goal in running was to
give black women representation in the Senate, and Butler was now there even if
Lee was not.
Perhaps Lee new all along that if she did
not drop out, Butler would. That is, after all, what happened.
Political and mathematical reality is that by not running,
Butler avoids diluting Democratic votes to the point where a Republican like
Garvey could make next November’s runoff and possibly squeak into the Senate.
Even if she were self-aggrandizing, which Butler has never been, that could
have assured a future Republican Senate majority, something she has fought against
for years.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias
at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most
Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,"
is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net.
