CALIFORNIA
FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, MAY 17, 2024, OR THEREAFTER
“KAMALA
HARRIS FOR GOVERNOR? A RUN COULD HAPPEN”
For most
of the early and teen years of this century, Kamala Harris was one of the
weakest of vote-getters in Democratic-dominated California, even while she held
three electoral offices in succession.
Her
marginal vote-getting performances have been mostly glossed over since she
became President Biden’s backup as vice president.
But what
happens if the Biden-Harris ticket loses this fall and Harris is left without
public office for the first time in 22 years? Harris will have just turned 60 a
couple of weeks before Election Day, an age when many politicians are just
getting started and almost exactly 30 years younger than former U.S. Sen.
Dianne Feinstein was when she died in office.
Not
exactly a retirement scenario. And yet, if she and Biden lose, Harris would
have a lot of proving to do about her electoral appeal before she could even
think about running for President again, as she briefly did in 2020.
Enter
California’s wide open 2026 race for governor. What better venue for Harris to
prove she has become a much more potent politician than she ever was before?
The race
is already somewhat crowded, with the likes of Lt. Gov. Elena Kounalakis,
former state Senate President Toni Atkins, former state Controller Betty Yee
and current state Schools Supt. Tony Thurmond now running. Other potential
entrants include Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta, former Atty. Gen. and current federal
Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and very likely, Riverside
County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the lone significant Republican possibility at the
moment.
Harris’
current prominence and greater name recognition would immediately propel her to
the forefront of that field, and it might be enough to get her into the runoff
election two years from now under the state’s Top Two “jungle primary” system.
She would also have the services of the same campaign consultants who have
helped current Gov. Gavin Newsom to win after win, gaining national prominence
in the process.
But would
Harris then be ripe for an upset? That’s where her previous nondescript polling
record could become relevant.
When she
ran for district attorney of San Francisco in 2003, she lost in the primary to
unpopular incumbent Terence Hallinan, but later beat him in a runoff. She then
was unopposed for reelection in 2007.
When she
ran for California attorney general in 2010, in the last state election before
the advent of Top Two, Harris easily won the Democratic primary, but Republican
rival Steve Cooley, then the Los Angeles district attorney, almost upset her
despite the Democrats’ huge voter registration advantage. She won by just 6,000
votes out of 9.6 million cast, the outcome not determined until more than three
weeks after the last vote was cast.
Easily
reelected later, she set her sights on the Senate seat once held by Democrat
Barbara Boxer and drew a Democrat for her runoff opponent. Harris easily beat
former Orange County Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, but still got only 39
percent of the primary vote before easing through the runoff with 61 percent.
Altogether,
that’s an underwhelming performance in this heavily Democratic state.
But
Harris has emerged lately as the Biden Administration’s top spokesperson on
abortion, barnstorming the nation to remind voters – especially women – that
ex-President Donald Trump is responsible for today’s patchwork state-by-state
picture on the procedure. That’s by virtue of his having named three
conservative Supreme Court justices, all of whom voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Her
railing against women’s loss of the right to choose in many states may have
made her more popular among women voters, but does not appear to have helped
her standing among males.
The net
effect is not yet enough to push her into a positive national rating. A recent
USA Today/Suffolk poll found that more than half of voters surveyed, 54
percent, considered Harris not qualified to be President, despite four years of
major national experience. Or perhaps because of it.
The
upshot is that if Biden and Harris lose this fall, Harris would need to prove
herself in a way she never has before she could be considered a serious future
presidential candidate. Becoming California governor would do that better than
almost anything else.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias
at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most
Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,"
is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net