CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, MARCH 18, 2022, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“NEWSOM FOR PREZ? DEMS MIGHT HAVE NO
ONE ELSE”
Just
a week or so before the filing deadline for California state offices, only one
semi-serious challenger had emerged to run against incumbent Democratic Gov.
Gavin Newsom.
No
major Democrats need apply, and some big Republican names opted out, like talk
show host Larry Elder, the leading replacement candidate in last fall’s failed
recall election.
This
is where the GOP’s consistent inability to elect its folks to statewide office
comes in: Everyone who could have seemed a formidable challenger to Newsom this
year already ran against him last year, trying to oust him in the September
recall election. Against a field of more than 100 candidates, Newsom won by a
margin of almost 62-38 percent.
Which
leaves the opposition with Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle, a relative
unknown from the thinly-populated North state.
Newsom’s
edge last fall was almost identical both to his winning margin in 2018 and
President Biden’s advantage over ex-President Donald Trump in California.
Landslide territory, when about 40 percent of voters almost always go Republican
and 40 percent Democratic, no matter who the candidates may be. Newsom, then,
twice has won over almost every potential swing voter.
That
has him looking as safe as any incumbent governor of California ever has,
despite a mid-February drop in his job approval ratings. Newsom’s winning vote
percentages easily exceed any rung up by ex-Gov. Jerry Brown, who four times
won easily.
Now
focus on the next election beyond this fall, the 2024 race for president. You
can bet that despite denials, part of Newsom’s mind is already there.
That
run in some ways figures to be the reverse of this year’s California campaign.
While Republicans have no significant “bench” in this state, national Democrats
are in a similar predicament. Newsom stands alone as about the only politician
who could change their situation.
Look
what Democrats have available: There’s a seriously aging Biden, who says he
will run two years from now, but appears – with his mincing walk – like he
might not be physically able. Behind him is Vice President Kamala Harris, whose
approval rating at the end of last year was just 28 percent, the worst ever for
a vice president. Harris was so bad a presidential primary candidate in 2020
that she had to drop out before even one primary or caucus ballot was cast.
Behind
them stands, who? Not New York Sen. Chuck Shumer, the Senate’s most prominent
Democrat, but one with little appeal outside his own state. Not Vermont Sen.
Bernard Sanders, who has failed in two determined runs, and by large margins.
By
contrast, Republicans not only have ex-President Donald Trump, who says he will
run and stages rallies around the country, even if they no longer draw full
houses. If Trump self-destructs, as he may have started doing by praising
Russian President Vladimir Putin as “genius” and “smart” after he invaded
Ukraine, they also have two big-state governors visibly eager to run. Those are
Florida’s Ron DeSantis and Gregg Abbott of Texas, neither of whom is likely to
run if Trump does. There’s also former Vice President Mike Pence, hated by
Trump because he refused to interfere illegally with the 2021 transition of
power to Biden.
Polls
indicate that if Democrats match either Biden or Harris against any of these
folks, they stand a good chance of losing. But Newsom could be a different
matter.
He
would come to the Democratic primary season with a major base of California
support that guarantees him a respectable number of delegates at the Democratic
nominating convention.
Plus,
he is now a seasoned campaigner, performing in a relaxed and confident manner
when threatened with a recall amid a loud campaign led by opponents of how he
handled the coronavirus pandemic.
His
recall margin indicates the vast majority of adults living under the rules
Newsom set approved what he did.
But
does Newsom want the job, for which his fellow Democrats may need him to run?
He’s sometimes seemed bored with governing lately, as when he left on a book
tour while Californians dealt with a well-publicized crime wave late last fall.
The
bottom line: If Newsom is the most the Democrats have, he will run, and likely
run strongly.
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Email Thomas Elias at
tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough, The Most Promising
Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It" is now
available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net