CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, JANUARY 22, 2013 OR THEREAFTER
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, JANUARY 22, 2013 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“VOTER REGISTRATIONS SHOW PARTIES JUST DON’T GET IT”
Democrats are riding high in
California these days, holding supermajorities of more than two-thirds in both
houses of the state Legislature and every statewide office, from governor down
to treasurer.
But while they still enjoy a
registration margin of 14.3 percent over Republicans, there’s strong evidence they
don’t understand the future of the state’s politics any more than the GOP.
That’s clear from the voter
registration numbers racked up last fall, figures which only recently have
undergone full analysis.
If the actions of young voters, those
in the 18-24 age bracket, are harbingers of the future, the newest figures
indicate voters will increasingly want politicians independent of super-strong
party commitments on either side. Rather, they’ll want candidates not slavishly
devoted to the “no new taxes” pledges signed by almost all Republicans or the
strictly pro-union agenda followed by most Democrats.
Here are some of the numbers, as
analyzed in a new UC Davis study:
-- Of the 244,049 new California youth
registrants in 2012, 63
percent – or
154,054 – signed up online after Internet registration became available in late
September, barely a month before the registration deadline.
Those youth registrations brought
voter signups in the age group to fully 14 percent higher than in 2008, when
Democrats led by Barack Obama staged a highly-touted “youth campaign.” By
contrast, there was only a 2 percent overall registration rise. This suggests
younger Californians – and by extension, younger Americans – are not nearly as
apathetic as some of their elders have believed, but are so busy with a
combination of education and work that they need a more convenient way to sign
up than traditional paper-centered methods.
-- Young voters made up 30 percent of all
those registering online
last fall, with
Democrats drawing 47.5 percent of them. Youth voters are the only group among
whom Democrats draw more than 40 percent, meaning that much of that party’s
current advantage lies with new or fairly new voters.
-- About 20 percent of youth voters
registered with no party
preference,
roughly equal to the overall voting public. Independents registering last year
numbered almost exactly the same as Republicans.
Taken together, these numbers continue
two trends: Democrats are registering almost twice as many new voters of all
ages as Republicans, showing that the GOP is unable or unwilling to adjust to
the social and ideological preferences of an increasing majority of
Californians.
But Democrats have no reason to be
smug. For the longer Californians stay registered as voters, the less loyal
they are to that party, too.
All of which explains why changes like
the “top two” primary system, adopted via ballot initiative in 2010 and used
for the first time last year, are so popular. Anything depriving the major
parties of some influence or promising more independent politicians will draw
significant, often majority, support here.
That might mean the handwriting is on
the wall for both major parties. But no one knows what might replace them if
their significance ever reduces to levels far below where it is now. For sure,
some new organizing methods would arise in the Legislature.
What’s more, no declared independent
has won election to statewide office in the modern era. This means the parties
are far from dead, and the Democrats' registration numbers among the young mean
that if they demonstrate some independence, they can avoid becoming irrelevant.
But independence on the part of
lawmakers would stick in the craw of legislative leaders, who gather money from
lobbyists and interest groups and often pass it on to other candidates more in
need of campaign dollars, thus solidifying their clout and leadership
positions.
The tide of no-party-preference
registrants, now at about 21 percent of all voters, also means Republicans have
hope, if they show they’re willing to deviate from longtime stances like
opposition to gun control, abortion and all new taxation.
Party activists have so far been
unwilling to countenance anything like that, opting to lose consistently rather
than bend their principles. This may eventually make the GOP the new Whigs, a
once-major party that became insignificant in the 1850s.
But the independents also threaten
Democratic discipline, for if they perceive that party’s officeholders as
doctrinaire leftists and union toadies, they can easily find other people to
back in today’s open primaries and subsequent general elections.
All of which means neither party
really understands what’s going on in California’s political thinking right
now. Democrats come closer, so they’re doing better than Republicans, but the
fact that the number of independent voters has doubled in the last 15 years
indicates neither party is truly in tune with modern California.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The
Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the
Government’s Campaign to Squelch It," is now available in a soft cover
fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
No comments:
Post a Comment