CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, MARCH 15, 2013 OR THEREAFTER
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, MARCH 15, 2013 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“IMMIGRATION AMNESTY A SURE THING? DON’T BET THE HOUSE”
Major politicians both nationally and
in California are talking as if changes in America’s immigration system are now
inevitable, including a guest worker program and “amnesty,” the code name for
allowing some kind of pathway for illegal immigrants eventually to become U.S.
citizens.
Don’t bet the house on it. Especially
don’t bet on the House going along.
Yes, the tide of anti-illegal
immigrant sentiment has waned considerably in the past year, as reported here.
Yes, many Republican politicians are coming to realize their party might be
doomed to perpetual minority status if it doesn’t appease Latino voters, who
have taken out their anger at the GOP’s tough immigration stance by voting
overwhelmingly for Democrats. Latinos are the nation’s fastest-growing voter
bloc; they are also on pace to achieve population parity with Anglos in
California by 2030.
And yes, immigration amnesty, even
with the very tough requirements in plans proposed by both President Obama and
a bipartisan group of eight influential U.S. senators, is the most humane way
to go.
But Democratic Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid of Nevada might have been prematurely optimistic when he said the
other day that “Republicans can no longer stop this. They’ve tried it; it
hasn’t worked.”
Reid has not always been a good reader
of tea leaves. He might be wrong again.
To pass, any amnesty plan would need a
significant number of votes from Republican members of Congress – and while
some GOP politicians have broken lately from their party’s previously-solid
anti-illegal immigrant stance, it’s yet to be determined how many might do it.
One reason they might be reluctant: As
with the Democrats, the majority of Republicans in the House hail from
districts where their party is dominant. Most GOP representatives win
reelection by consistent margins of 55-45 percent or more. The only time
politicians in these solidly “red” districts usually lose is in primaries,
where they can be attacked by more conservative candidates.
Despite an overall national sense that amnesty is appropriate for
illegal immigrants who have worked here for many years, paid their back taxes,
paid a fine and not committed any crimes (evidenced in several major polls over
the last three months and the essence of both President Obama’s plan and that
of the Senate group), that feeling still does not prevail in the more
conservative precincts whence most Republicans in Congress hail.
Listen to Rosemary Jenks, director of
government affairs for the anti-illegal immigrant group NumbersUSA: “If the
Senate were serious about reforming our failed immigration system, the first
step of their plan would be immediate, mandatory use of E-Verify (the federal
system under which employers can check the immigration status of new hires).
Instead, the Senate gang’s proposal – Amnesty 2.0 – tries to out-amnesty Obama
with meaningless enforcement measures, mass amnesty and increases in legal
immigration, with taxpayers left to foot the bill.”
Of the current proposals, Republican
Congressman Lamar Smith of Texas, a longtime leading amnesty opponent, said:
“If you legalize 11 million people, it is going to cost taxpayers when they
become eligible for government benefits, it’s going to cost Americans their
jobs when they have to compete with millions more people for scarce jobs. I
don’t see much good here for Americans.”
The great
likelihood is that neither will the majority of voters in the most
preponderantly Republican districts around the nation and that GOP congress
members will hear about it in town halls they regularly hold. That happened in
late February to Arizona Sen. John McCain, a recent Republican convert to the
amnesty concept.
What’s more,
despite their seeming enthusiasm for immigration changes including a path to
citizenship, many Democrats probably would not mind all that much if their
Republican colleagues remained adamant against it.
That’s because the
longer the GOP holds out against the kind of changes outlined in both Obama’s
plan and the Senate proposal, the more the Latino vote will solidify in the
Democratic column. So there will be outward frowns from Democrats if
immigration amnesty passes the Senate but gets stuck in the House, but inwardly
many will be glad to have another albatross to hang around Republican necks.
For Democrats
everywhere well know how far the GOP has fallen in California and how tarnished
the Republican brand has become among Latinos here since then-Gov. Pete Wilson
campaigned in 1994 as a staunch foe of illegal immigrants.
All of which makes
this a key moment for Republicans. Voting for change would give them a shot at
winning back at least some Latino votes, while voting no would allow many of
them to please their local constituents but set back their party’s national
chances potentially for decades to come.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The
Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the
Government’s Campaign to Squelch It," is now available in a soft cover
fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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