CALIFORNIA
FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, JULY 16, 2013, OR THEREAFTER
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, JULY 16, 2013, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“WILL
HOUSE GOP MAKE PRESIDENTIAL SUICIDE PACT?”
Maybe
Dana Rohrabacher, the Republican congressman from Orange County best known for
his surfing photo-ops, has wiped out once too often. Or maybe his ultra-safe
political turf keeps him from seeing the reality that stares his party in the
face when it comes to the issue of immigration.
Whatever
the reason, Rohrabacher demanded early in the House of Representatives’
discussion of immigration changes that his fellow Republican, Speaker John
Boehner, poll the GOP’s 234 congress members before he allows a House vote on
any immigration bill.
That would follow the so-called
“Hastert rule,” – named after former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert – which
says no bill of any kind should ever get a vote without the backing of a
majority of the majority party.
Doing this would likely mean no
immigration bill containing any kind of pathway to citizenship for unauthorized
immigrants will pass so long as Republicans hold a House majority.
Boehner quickly succumbed to the
pressure. “I don’t see any way of bringing an immigration bill to the floor
that doesn’t have majority support of Republicans,” he told reporters.
Call this a presidential election
suicide pact, for doing it might mean no Republican will be elected President
for quite a while to come. That, at least, is the contention of Republican Sen.
Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, one of four Republicans in the so-called
“Gang of Eight” that crafted most of the immigration bill which passed the
Senate in late June.
“If we don’t get (immigration reform)
in a reasonable, practical way, it doesn’t matter who you run in 2016,” Graham
said. “We’re in a demographic death spiral as a party and the only way we can
get back in good graces with the Hispanic community is to pass comprehensive
immigration reform.”
How can that be correct, when
Republicans easily hung onto their House majority last year, even as President
Obama was handily reelected? Mainly, it’s because gerrymandered districts in
states where Republicans control legislatures guarantee huge GOP edges in their
congressional delegations. That gives the GOP clout in the House far exceeding
its share of popular votes cast for Congress.
Rohrabacher is effectively sealed off
from the sort of pressures Graham cites because his coastal district is so
heavily Republican.
That left him free to launch a gnarly wave
toward Boehner, who was about to stage his first-ever meeting with the
all-Democratic Congressional Hispanic Caucus. For conservatives like
Rohrabacher, it’s almost treasonous to let the Democrats’ 201 House votes count
for anything – and the only immigration bills that stand a chance of passing
the House without Democratic support would do things like making felons of
anyone in this country without proper documents.
Rohrabacher told a conservative radio
host that Boehner would face a party revolt if he allows a vote on any bill
like the Senate one. “I would consider it a betrayal of the Republican members
of the House and a betrayal of Republicans throughout the country,” Rohrabacher
said. “If Boehner moves forward…he should be removed as speaker.”
That sentiment flies in the face of
national polls, unanimous in finding a large majority of Americans favors a
path to citizenship for the undocumented, especially if it is as arduous a path
as the Senate bill would make it: Heavy fines, waiting periods of about 13
years for many, thorough background checks and more.
With Boehner caving to the pressure
from Rohrabacher and other ultra-conservatives, Graham’s prediction of GOP
disaster may come to pass. One survey by the Latino Decisions polling firm, for
example, found that as many as 40 percent of Hispanic voters would be willing
to give GOP presidential candidates a new look – but only if the party takes a
leadership role on immigration changes.
Latinos, the fastest growing ethnic
voter bloc in America, still vote in numbers far below their percentage of the
population. As more register and vote, they will gain even more importance than
they had last year, when Obama’s 77-23 percent majority among them was
instrumental in his reelection.
The bottom line for Republican purists
is simple: If they insist on treating all the undocumented as criminals or
something similar, they very likely will doom their party to at least one more
presidential wipeout.
But if they surprise and prove willing
to compromise, it could be Democrats who fall off the wave.
-30-
Email
Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough:
The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch
It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias
columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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