CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, JUNE 6, 2014 OR THEREAFTER
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, JUNE 6, 2014 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
"TWO CALIFORNIA DISTRICTS KEY IN DEMO CONGRESS HOPES”
With memories of last fall’s federal
government shutdown and several national debt default crises already faded from
the public mind, national Democrats no longer appear to believe they have a
realistic chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives from the
Republicans who wrested it away from them unexpectedly almost four years ago.
But they might still gain some ground
in a few places. Democrats harbor that hope primarily because every poll shows
most Americans – even about half those who call themselves Republicans – assign
primary blame for government gridlock to the GOP.
To take control and make San
Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi speaker again, Democrats would need to win back 17
seats now held by Republicans. That’s probably not going to happen. Because of
gerrymandering in many states, Democrats have no chance in the vast majority of
the 235 districts now held by the GOP.
But they still could improve their
numbers. Democrats have identified 24 so-called swing seats where Republicans
won close elections last year, and two of their most prominent pollsters say
they are ahead in 17 of those. If they won all those – not likely – and hung onto every seat they
now hold, they could rid themselves of Speaker John Boehner. Not realistic.
Every Democratic scenario for making
progress in the House, though, requires wins in two of the three California
districts among those 24 swing seats.
In one of those three, Republican
David Valadao’s 21st District, Democrats don’t have much realistic
hope. Even though voter registration is about even in that Visalia-centered
district, Valadao is favored by a 50-40 percent margin over just about any
Democrat, say the Democrats’ own surveys.
But Democrats are in much better shape
in the district now held by retiring Republican Gary Miller and on Jeff
Denham’s Central Valley turf.
In Miller’s 31st district,
covering much of San Bernardino County, four Democrats and a couple of
Republicans are vying for runoff election slots. Before Miller pulled out, the
Public Policy Polling firm had him trailing 51-39 percent when voters were
asked to compare him with just about any Democrat.
Democrats have a 41-34 percent voter
registration edge in the district, with another 20 percent giving no party
preference (Democrats have lately won majorities among these undeclared voters
in most places). Miller had the good fortune to face a fellow Republican in his
last election, after he and state Sen. Bob Huff topped a fractured list of
Democrats in the 2012 primary.
There’s a good chance one Republican
could make the runoff in this district, but the polling numbers suggest it is
the Democrats’ to lose. Most likely, the leading Democrat will be either
Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, activist Eloise Gomez Reyes or former Congressman
Joe Baca. Aguilar has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee and endorsements from more than a dozen Southern California
Democratic members of Congress, including most of those from neighboring
districts. Gomez draws a slew of endorsements from the likes of Democratic
Congress members Xavier Becerra and Raul Grijalva, the National Women’s
Political Caucus and several big labor unions.
Denham,
whose 10th District encompasses Modesto, Manteca and Tracy, beat
Democrat Jose Hernandez, a former astronaut, by 53-47 percent in 2012, a margin
of about 11,000 votes out of 209,000 cast. The Public Policy Polling survey
currently shows 37 percent of district voters approve his performance in
office, even with the 37 percent who disapprove. He trailed by four percentage
points when the poll asked voters whether they’d vote for Denham or a Democrat,
without naming any possible opponent.
Once the opposition acquires a name
and face, of course, everything can change in any political race. So even
though Democrats look in good shape in those districts, primary election
results deciding the candidate finalists will speak loudly about the eventual
outcomes.
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Email
Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough:
The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch
It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias
columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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