CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, JUNE 20, 2014, OR THEREAFTER
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, JUNE 20, 2014, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“VOTERS WIN WITH TOP TWO PRIMARY”
Results like those from this month’s primary cause detractors to call California’s four-year-old “top two” election system the “jungle primary” because it often features races with a dozen or more contestants and outcomes that can be completely unpredictable.
For sure, that makes it a lot more fun
both to vote and follow election returns – unless you are a prominent candidate
or a boss of either major party.
Focus on just one statewide race for a
solid picture of what the top two system can do. This one came within a hair
(and a recount might change things back) of absolutely assuring the Republican
Party of one of California’s four leading political offices this fall, even
though registered Democrats now outnumber Republicans by about 15 percent.
That race pitted two established,
well-funded Democratic candidates against two Republicans, with one more
Democrat and a Green Party hopeful also in the field. Not as many prospects as
in some other races, but still plenty to scramble some establishment eggs.
For the 10.9 percent of the Election
Day vote count won by virtually unknown Democrat Tammy D. Blair and Green
Laura Wells knocked down the counts of former Democratic Assembly Speaker John
Perez and state Board of Equalization member Betty Yee. And so, for much of
Election Night night, it appeared Republicans Ashley Swearengin, the mayor
of Fresno, and David Evans, a CPA and former mayor of tiny California City,
would meet this fall with no Democratic opposition.
In a state which has seen no statewide
Republican officeholders for almost four years, that would have been
remarkable.
But Perez edged out Evans by a mere
2,436 votes, a 21.7 percent performance, when all the counting was done on
Election Night, and appeared headed for a runoff with Swearengin (who herself
had just 24.4 percent), pending the count of thousands of provisional and
damaged ballots, not to mention a potential recall.
Under the previous party primary
system, there would have been little remarkable in those numbers – Swearengin
would have been the GOP nominee and the Democratic winner would still be in the
balance, but for sure a Democrat and a Republican would have faced off in the
fall.
If this kind of narrow race for an
office whose occupant is the state’s chief check-writer doesn’t prove that
every vote matters, it’s hard to see what could. Top two, then, will provide
future motivation for two things: It will give voters more reason than ever to
participate. And it will give parties reason to get organized well enough to
avoid matchups between prominent party mates for the same office.
There was no such organization in
either party this time. The result is that in district after district, races
will pit persons of the same parties in runoffs this fall. In runs for Congress
alone, seven districts in all parts of the state will see Democrat vs. Democrat
and Republican on Republican.
In some of those contests,
incumbents ran up large primary majorities, but still must run again in the
fall, suggesting top two should be tweaked to make winning 50 percent of
the primary vote sufficient for election. If that were the case now, Gov. Jerry
Brown would already have a second term. Similarly, incumbent members of
Congress like Xavier Becerra, Tom McClintock, Adam Schiff, Lucille
Roybal-Allard and Mike Thompson must contest again in November, despite far
outdistancing all who ran against them this spring.
More interesting will be the
same-party race pitting Republicans Tony Strickland and Steve Knight in a
district stretching from Ventura County to the High Desert portion of Los
Angeles County, and another matching first-term Democrat Eric Swalwell and
state Senate majority leader Ellen Corbett in the East Bay suburbs of San
Francisco. Silicon Valley gets a ballyhooed intraparty race between longtime
incumbent Democrat Mike Honda and the well-funded Indian-American Ro Khanna.
Members of the minority party in each of those districts can now decide the
fall outcomes, exactly what top two intended.
This primary also debunked the notion
that top two allows only major party candidates onto runoffs. Incumbents Schiff
and Thompson both face independents.
It’s all different than after any
previous California primary, with incumbents less secure than before, and
voters with the power they sought when they created top two.
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Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, go to www.californiafocus.net
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, go to www.californiafocus.net
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