CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2016, OR THEREAFTER
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2016, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“ATTORNEY GENERAL PICK SHAKES UP CALIFORNIA POLITICS”
“ATTORNEY GENERAL PICK SHAKES UP CALIFORNIA POLITICS”
All through his career,
unpredictability has been the hallmark of Gov. Jerry Brown, and he did it again
by choosing 12-term Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra of Los Angeles as
California’s next attorney general.
With his confirmation by a
Democratic-controlled Legislature completely certain, Becerra will force other
major politicians to look over their shoulders; some are likely to change their
longstanding plans. He also moves the state beyond an era of substantial
domination by a clique of San Francisco-area Democrats that has included U.S.
Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, outgoing
Attorney General and new U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris and Brown himself, a former
Oakland mayor.
Becerra, 58, instantly becomes
California’s top-ranking Latino politico. He’s not saying, but he could run for
election to his new office on his own in 2018, or he could run for governor
against the declared likes of Democrats Newsom, former Los Angeles Mayor
Antonio Villaraigosa, state Treasurer John Chiang and possibly so-far
undeclared Republicans like San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer or outgoing Fresno
Mayor Ashley Swearengin.
Former San Francisco Mayor Newsom led
the only major public poll conducted so far on that race, with the two
Republicans placing second and third. Becerra, until now the Democrats’ No. 3
figure in the House, would shake up that race enormously because of his
longtime popularity among Latino voters.
But he insists he’s not looking ahead.
“I’ll be gratified if I can make sure I can get confirmed to be the next
attorney general,” he said in a television appearance just after Brown
announced his choice to succeed Harris when she moves to the Senate. “Right
now, I’m thrilled the governor would put this confidence in me to be the next AG.”
The choice of Becerra was a slap at
two-term state Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones, a firm consumer-rights
advocate who has clashed occasionally with Brown over regulation of health
insurance companies.
Jones, so far the only declared 2018
candidate for attorney general, could react in several ways. Although he’s held
his current job six years, he could run for reelection, insurance commissioner
being the only statewide office without a two-term limit. Or the former
assemblyman from Sacramento could do what Newsom did in 2010 after it became
clear he had no chance against Brown in that year’s Democratic primary race for
governor – settle for becoming lieutenant governor.
Both the attorney general’s and the
lieutenant governor’s offices can be stepping stones to higher office; Harris
is the latest to use her post that way. Ex-attorney generals who became
governors include Earl Warren, Brown, his father Edmund G. (Pat) Brown and
George Deukmejian. Gray Davis was the latest former lieutenant governor to take
the state’s top office.
For sure, Jones won’t switch from his
run for attorney general until he knows Becerra’s plans. For Becerra has long
coveted a seat in the Senate, and might have run for the one Harris will soon
take, except that Harris entered that run the moment Boxer announced her
retirement early last year. She quickly corralled support from every major
Democratic officeholder in the state. So Becerra stayed in Congress until Brown
tapped him early this month.
Should Feinstein decide sometime in
the next two years to retire from the Senate after four-plus terms, Becerra
might seek her job.
But if Becerra and Jones both run for
attorney general, the two popular and accomplished figures are likely to split
the Democratic vote in the 2018 rendition of California’s top two primary,
possibly producing a November runoff between two Democrats, as happened this
year when Harris easily beat Orange County Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez.
It’s also possible that if Becerra
enters the gubernatorial field after serving a year or so, he could force one
or two of the other prominent Democrats running to drop out – or risk
splintering the Democratic vote so badly that Faulconer and Swearengin end up
in an all-Republican runoff. That sort of things has happened twice in lesser
contests. The top-two system makes this possible even though where Democrats
now hold every state major office, plus two-thirds majorities in both houses of
the Legislature.
All of which means one choice by Jerry
Brown has quickly shaken up California politics more than any event since Gray
Davis was recalled in 2003.
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Elias is author of the current book “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government's Campaign to Squelch It,” now available in an updated third edition. His email address is tdelias@aol.com
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