CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2018 OR THEREAFTER
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2018 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“GOP
RETIREMENTS ALSO COMPLICATE LIFE FOR DEMS”
Democrats
were gloating in mid-January, almost assuming victories in two once-solidly
Republican California congressional districts and figuring that could help
assure their retaking control of the House of Representatives after eight years
of GOP domination there.
But
hold on one minute. The twin departures of two longtime House grandees and
committee chairmen also present some problems for Democrats, even if many don’t
see it.
That’s
because both those GOP retirees, Orange County’s Ed Royce and Darrell Issa,
whose district includes most of northern San Diego County and some of Orange
County, have had very prominent targets on their backs ever since Democrat
Hillary Clinton carried both their districts in 2016, when Issa won reelection
by the slimmest margin of any House incumbent.
Now
Democrats will have no one local to target, likely making the campaigns there
almost exclusively about how loyal the Republicans running might be to
President Trump.
What’s
more, the departure of the two incumbents opens both districts to the vagaries
of California’s top two primary election system, where only the two leading
primary vote-getters win spots in the November runoff regardless of party.
So
neither Democrats nor Republicans can now feel absolutely assured of making the
fall ballot.
With
Issa and Royce on that ballot, Democrats would not have to worry about
splintering their votes in the primary and possibly giving the GOP both runoff
slots, as happened earlier in this decade in a predominately Democratic
district in San Bernardino County.
In that
district, now represented by Democrat Pete Aguilar, Republican Gary Miller got
two additional years in office because so many Democrats ran. The same could
happen in the two newly-open, incumbent-less districts, among 29 being vacated
nationally by GOP retirees so far. Democrats need to hold onto all their seats
and take 24 GOP slots in order to win back a House majority.
There
is a chance the GOP could suffer from splintering this year, too, especially in
Royce’s district, centered on Fullerton. The likes of former Assemblywomen Ling
Ling Chang and Young Kim quickly entered this race, as did Orange County
supervisor Michelle Steel and former state Senate Republican leader Bob Huff.
Former county GOP chairman Scott Baugh and county Supervisor Shawn Nelson also
might run. Half a dozen Democrats got in the race before Royce dropped out and
more may now declare, with the March 9 filing deadline well over a month away.
Royce,
whose tenure as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee was due to end
next December anyhow, quickly endorsed Kim, his former longtime aide. That may
net her a big share of the $3.5 million war chest Royce possesses.
All
this could see two candidates who each pull fewer than 20 percent of the
primary vote facing off in November.
Things
could also get complicated in Issa’s district, where Republican Assemblyman
Rocky Chavez entered the House race within hours of Issa’s retirement
announcement. Chavez, a moderate and one of seven GOP legislators who last year
helped pass an extension of the state’s cap-and-trade system for cutting
greenhouse gases, has a chance to win over some no-party-preference voters who
might have turned thumbs down on Issa. Other prominent Republicans also could
enter this race, including state Senate Republican leader Pat Bates and Diane
Harkey, chair of the recently scandal-ridden state Board of Equalization.
Four
Democrats were already seeking to oust Issa, a longtime ultra-conservative who
as chairman of the House Oversight Committee incessantly dogged ex-President
Barack Obama with unproven claims of wrongdoing. Among the Democrats is retired
Marine Col. Doug Applegate, an Iraq war veteran who almost beat Issa in 2016.
That forced Issa to adopt more moderate public stances in the last year. He
even altered his conservative voting habits slightly, opposing Trump’s
controversial tax changes at the last moment, after it had become clear they
would pass without his help.
The
GOP’s congressional campaign chief, Rep. Steve Stivers of Ohio, expressed hope
Democrats would splinter in the June primary, leaving their eventual nominees
“black and blue, and broke.” But there’s almost as much chance of the GOP
splintering, which leaves plenty of uncertainty for both parties.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias
at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most
Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,"
is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net.
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