CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, MARCH 5, 2019 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“WILL CALIFORNIA GOP BECOME A DINOSAUR?”
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, MARCH 5, 2019 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“WILL CALIFORNIA GOP BECOME A DINOSAUR?”
In
mid-2016, just before Donald Trump won the presidency, California’s Republican
Party was on pace to become the third choice of state voters within three
years, the first “major” political party to fall that low since Whigs became
extinct just before the Civil War.
The
pace quickened after that election. Democrats made small gains in voter
registration, Republicans suffered losses and the “no party preference”
category moved into second place among California’s registered voters even
sooner than expected.
Yes,
there is constant churn in the voter rolls, with many thousands of voters
moving, both within California and to other places, and many thousands more
entering the voting lists from other states and via naturalization of
immigrants.
But
simple churn can’t explain away the fact that between September 2014 and September
2018, the four years between mid-term elections, California’s Democratic
registration rose by about 680,000, while Republicans dropped by 310,000 and
NPP’s climbed by 1.03 million. In percentage terms, Democrats now have almost
45 percent of all voters, NPPs amount to slightly less than 27 percent and the
GOP has just 24.5 percent. That’s a rise of almost 2 million
no-party-preference voters since 2010.
Yet,
only one NPP candidate qualified for the statewide runoff ballot last year,
former Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a onetime Republican who says he
long wanted to shed his former GOP label but could not until state voters
adopted the open primary election system in 2010.
So
independent voters have not yet asserted themselves much at the polls, but the
makings are there for a centrist third major political party that could
seriously challenge the leftist-dominated Democrats and the right-oriented
Republicans, if it could find prominent, capable leadership.
If past
is prologue, the registration shifts will be even more striking during next
year’s presidential election season, independent of the strong feelings Trump
regularly elicits from supporters and opponents.
In
2016, registration rose almost 2 million above the previous mid-term election
numbers, which were a record for off-year balloting. And last year, despite the
churn of the previous two years, the 19.1 million registered voters and the
portion of eligible Californians who registered (76 percent) were almost as
high as during last the presidential year. That means registration will likely
reach 20 million two years from now, with about 80 percent of eligible citizens
signed up to vote.
There’s
some comfort here for Democrats, even though their registration numbers have
increased far less than the no-party-preference ranks, where there is growth
without any organized sign-up effort of the sort both major parties regularly
run during election seasons.
Democrats
have seen many thousands of former Republican voters convert to their column or
drift into NPP-land. But far more ex-Republicans so far choose to switch to the
NPP column than into the Democratic fold, which translates as a warning to the
Dems: don’t get smug.
The
corps of ex-Republicans among NPP registrants is one reason GOP candidates like
2018 gubernatorial hopeful John Cox consistently run ahead of their party’s
registration numbers. No Republican seeking statewide office won last year, but
all were far ahead of the 24.5 percent level where GOP registration was mired.
This
makes it clear that for many longtime Republicans leaving their traditional
fold, it’s still not easy to mark a ballot for a Democratic candidate. This
suggests that a centrist third party would find a natural recruiting ground
available. But it also should tell the state GOP it is hurting because it’s out
of step with the majority of Californians whose votes on ballot propositions
have long favored gun controls, legalized marijuana and higher tobacco prices,
just a few causes few Republican officials ever back.
The Whigs learned that
when a party gets too far out of step with the voters its candidates seek to
represent, it is doomed.
Doom is
not yet inevitable for the California Republican Party. But the latest results
should ring alarm bells: If the party doesn’t make its outlook more
contemporary, those ex-Republicans who now find it difficult to mark ballots
for Democrats may find the task growing easier with each election cycle.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, go to www.californiafocus.net
No comments:
Post a Comment