CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, JANUARY 14, 2022, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“REDRAWN DISTRICTS PRODUCE YAWNS,
CONSTERNATION”
Depending
on who you are, California’s newly redrawn congressional district lines are
producing either big yawns or a lot of consternation.
Yes,
there is the usual posturing. The state’s hugely outnumbered Republican Party,
for example, issued a statement immediately after seeing the changes, saying
“It’s going to be tough running in 2022 with a D behind your name.” Probably
incorrect.
For it
now appears that even though one Democratic district was virtually obliterated
in the mapping process (Lucille Roybal-Allard’s current 40th, in
eastern Los Angeles County), California Democrats will end up with at least as
many House seats as they now hold. No surprise, Roybal-Allard, 80, announced
her impending retirement just days before the new lines became official.
Yes,
there will be some churn. For example, if the Latino majorities in 16 of the
new districts (three more than among the old ones) vote in larger numbers than
usual, some longtime officeholders could be turned out in the June primary
election.
But
Democrats will have more voters than Republicans in 43 of the 52 new or
surviving districts, while others – like two-term Democrat Mike Levin’s
territory centered on northern San Diego County – will have about even party
registration numbers. That means a lot will turn on the registration and
turnout efforts of both parties, and Democrats have essentially whipped
Republicans in those departments over the last two decades, holding almost a
2-1 registration edge statewide.
Meanwhile,
there are large contingents of no-party-preference voters in many districts,
and those folks have generally – but not always – leaned to Democrats.
Some of
the more interesting changes will see two-term Orange County Democrat Katie
Porter keep only part of her current mostly inland district, but eat up a lot
of the old coastal 48th District now represented by Michelle Steel.
Steel will run in a different district rather than challenge the extremely
well-funded Porter, who has a national fan base.
That
leaves former Democratic Congressman Harley Rouda, who expected a rematch of
his tight 2020 race with with Steel, casting about for a logical course. Will
he oppose Porter, or instead wangle some kind of federal appointment, as
deposed members of Congress often do?
The
current 25th District, which has included the hugely contrasting
Antelope Valley in Los Angeles County and suburban Simi Valley in Ventura
County, will no longer have Simi Valley, but instead pick up a couple of mostly
Democratic pieces of Los Angeles. Does that mean automatic defeat for incumbent
Republican Mike Garcia, who won office by the state’s slimmest margin in 2020?
Said
Garcia, “Five out of the 11 (current GOP) districts see Republicans more
vulnerable, but I know we will win in this new district.” Time will tell.
In the
Central Valley, increased Latino population percentages were one reason veteran
Republican Devin Nunes gave up his Visalia-centered seat to work for
ex-President Donald Trump, despite his long record of not paying the help.
Those same new numbers will imperil the political future of Hanford’s David
Valadao, who has split the last two elections in very tight races. But two-term
Democrat Josh Harder of Modesto will seek at least some new hunting grounds
because bunches of incoming Republicans have altered his current 10th
District. He will likely move slightly south.
The new
plan leaves major national figures like San Francisco Democrat Nancy Pelosi and
Bakersfield Republican Kevin McCarthy as safe as ever, meaning it’s almost
certain the speaker of the House will still be a Californian when the voting is
over.
This all
has to be disappointing to Republicans who believed California’s loss of one
House seat due to low population growth would help them take back the House majority.
But
current trends suggest the GOP may have clinched a House majority even before
the November polls close in California.
Still, a
strong legislative comeback for President Biden’s agenda during the first half
of the new year could change that picture and leave Democrats still narrowly in
control of the House – if they can stay unified, which has been their biggest
challenge over the last few years.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias at
tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough, The Most Promising
Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It" is now
available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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