CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, MARCH 29, 2024, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“PRIMARY RESULTS BODE ILL FOR
SWING DISTRICT DEMS”
It may
have been because Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Adam Schiff spent big in
this month’s primary election to make sure former Major League Baseball star
Steve Garvey would be his opponent this fall.
It may
have been because of a general lack of interest and enthusiasm among Democratic
voters in California for that election, which featured no serious contests for
President and only one statewide ballot proposition.
But one
thing for sure: Democrats must do much better this fall than they did in the
California primary if they expect to take any congressional seats from
Republicans in their bid to win back control of the House of Representatives.
National
Democrats have said for months those districts are their key to winning back
the Speaker’s gavel.
But in
so-called swing district after swing district, primary election results left
Democratic candidates with large amounts of ground to make up if they want to
overtake current Republican incumbents.
Almost
all these districts reside in Southern California and the Central Valley, with
most of Northern California not looking up for grabs at all, not even where
longtime incumbent Democrats are about to retire.
For
several years, Democrats have believed they can topple Republican David Valadao
from his 22nd district seat, mostly in Tulare and Kern counties. In
the primary there, the serious contest was on the Democratic side, where former
state Assemblyman Rudy Salas fought off a bid by state Sen. Melissa Hurtado for
the right to a rematch with Valadao, who beat him two years ago.
But Salas
starts the runoff campaign at a disadvantage. He and Hurtado combined for just
44 percent of the primary vote, while Valadao and another Republican netted 55
percent. So the Democrat will need to attract 7 percent more votes in the fall
than Democrats totaled this spring.
It was
worse for Democrats in the 27th District, centered on Santa Clarita,
where Republican Mike Garcia seeks a third term from a district with a
Democratic registration advantage. Garcia got 56 percent of the primary vote,
while November rival Democrat George Whitesides pulled in just 32 percent.
Meanwhile,
in Republican Michelle Steel’s 45th district in Orange County, she
took 56 percent of the vote to autumn Democratic rival Derek Tran’s paltry 16
percent.
Then there’s the 47th
District seat in another part of Orange County, held for six years by Democrat
Katie Porter, a loser to Schiff and Garvey in the Senate run. Democratic Party
officials backed state Sen. Dave Min against activist Joanna Weiss in the
primary and he won a runoff slot, the two Democrats netting 45 percent of the
vote. Meanwhile, Republican Scott Baugh and the No. 2 Republican drew a
combined 47 percent.
Put it together and in
virtually all the swing districts Democrats believe can give them control, they
start the fall season at a disadvantage.
This does not outwardly faze
Democratic officials, who mounted only a very light get-out-the-vote drive in
the primary, saving their resources for the fall.
“Historically, the primary
dynamic is not really predictive of general election outcomes in California,”
said Dan Gottlieb, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee. “Ultimately, there will be much more enthusiasm in the fall, when
President Biden faces off again with Donald Trump. It’s that enthusiasm factor
that brings out voters.”
He also said that because his
party expects Schiff to have an easy time against Garvey in November, money
that might otherwise have been spent on that race will wind up helping
congressional candidates.
Democrats believe that while
Schiff’s promoting Garvey in the primary to avoid facing off with Porter helped
pump up the vote for down-ticket Republicans this spring, down-ticket Democrats
expect to have far more resources later this year.
They will need that, plus a
lot more enthusiasm than their voters showed this fall, to make up the margins
Republicans enjoyed in those districts this spring. If they can’t summon these
up and don’t add unexpected seats elsewhere, Democrats can expect Republicans
to control the House for at least two more years.
-30-
Elias is author of the current book “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most
Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government's Campaign to Squelch It,” now
available in an updated third edition. His email address is tdelias@aol.com
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