CALIFORNIA FOCUS
1720 OAK STREET, SANTA MONICA, CALIFORNIA 90405
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2025 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“PROP. 50 WIN GIVES NEWSOM HUGE BOOST”
Ever since the Sept. 30 deadline for filing quarterly campaign fundraising reports, it’s been obvious that Gov. Gavin Newsom’s pet ballot measure, Proposition 50, was going to win by a landslide.
Now it’s become clear that the big margin by which the anti-Donald Trump redistricting plan passed will give Newsom a big leg up on the 2028 presidential campaign he has finally admitted he's considering.
The win became obvious when the finance reports showed Democrats had donated more than twice as much to pass Prop. 50 as Republicans had donated against it.
That was a sure-fire sign the Republicans had pretty much given up on defeating the proposition. It also meant an end to ex-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s persuasive anti-50 TV ads and caused Republicans to concentrate their efforts on other states where they hope to redistrict to create enough newly Republican districts to guarantee continued GOP control of the House of Representatives.
This worked for them in Missouri and North Carolina, gaining one GOP-oriented seat in each, but has failed so far in Kansas and Indiana. And there are the five former Democratic-oriented seats in Texas whose gerrymandering into GOP majorities started this whole thing.
Without House control, Trump would lack the freedom of movement he’s enjoyed so far in his second term as president, a freedom he has sometimes believed might even give him the ability to run for a third term, despite the Constitutional ban on running more than twice.
That was why Trump began his effort by pressuring Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and its Legislature to redraw those five congressional seats.
Newsom became the first national Democrat to fight back strongly, calling the Trump effort “election rigging” and getting those words into the title of his measure. The changes it makes, canceling districts drawn by California’s non-partisan citizens redistricting commission and substituting a plan that figures to give Democrats five new seats to match those the party will likely lose in Texas, are temporary. In 2031, when new districts will be drawn anyhow, the job will revert to the citizens’ commission.
That contradicts Schwarzenegger’s often-repeated claim that Prop. 50 means the end for that commission, whose membership is reconstituted every 10 years.
For Newsom, it’s the first time he’s taken an action that directly hits back at a Trump effort, which can only bolster his standing among Democrats nationally. Polls show they’re disappointed at their party’s passivity in the face of Trump actions like sending troops into Democratic-run cities, trying to force colleges to buy into his education philosophy no matter how their students, faculty and state legislature might feel and his defiance of some court orders.
While the results on 50 came as no surprise to anyone who read the Sept. 30 financial reports, the early count also suggested final totals might closely match a late October CBS News poll that showed 62 percent of likely special election voters would vote for the redistricting.
This was apparently enough to push Newsom into admitting at long last that he is “considering” a 2028 presidential run. He’s betting Trump will not try to forestall that election by declaring a national emergency of some kind, and that whatever Republican is nominated will therefore be someone else.
That would run somewhat counter to longtime Trump advisor and former chief strategist Steve Bannon, now back in favor after serving jail time for three convictions of criminal contempt of Congress and fraud. He predicted the other day that Trump “will be president in 2028.” No one actually questions that; a new president is not due to be sworn in until early 2029. But did Bannon really mean 2029?
Newsom plainly wants to become the next president in 2029, in part to undo a lot of what Trump has done. Things like his prophetic prediction of artillery products falling on the I-5 freeway in Camp Pendleton during a celebration of the Marine Corps’ 250th anniversary despite Corps denials that it could happen, can only help him. His closure of that highway, where shrapnel actually fell on police vehicles, probably saved both lives and plenty of property damage.
His triumph with Prop. 50, coming soon afterward, will amplify the ground he gained on I-5.
For sure, his recent performances give him a leg up on other potential Democratic candidates like Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshears and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net.
Suggested pullout quote: “Newsom clearly wants to…undo a lot of what Trump has done.”
