CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2012 OR THEREAFTER
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2012 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“HOW TO MAKE CALIFORNIA COUNT AGAIN”
Back in 1948, when most of America
woke up the day after the presidential election and learned to its surprise
that Harry Truman had defeated Thomas Dewey, California counted. It was only
because of this state’s late-reporting vote that Truman won out.
But there was no suspense about
California’s vote this month: the television networks called the state for
Democrat Barack Obama the moment the polls closed.
In 1948, Truman whistle-stopped the
state, speaking from the rear balcony of his campaign train in big cities and
small towns like Madera, Turlock and Tulare. People saw their President in the
flesh, something only a few wealthy Californians could do this year.
The outcome here was so certain this time – as it has been since
1992 – that neither Obama nor Republican Mitt Romney nor either of their vice
presidential running mates held even one campaign rally in the Golden State.
They came here only when their cash supplies began running short, essentially
to recharge their wallets from the nation’s leading political ATM.
For votes they went to the “swing states,” with more than
two-thirds of the last month’s candidate campaign appearances confined to just
three states: Ohio, Florida and Virginia. There were occasional forays to
exotic locales like Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada and
Michigan, but not even many of those.
As for states like Texas, California
and New York – three of the nation’s four largest – forget about it. That’s
because the outcomes in those states are foregone conclusions these days, so
certain that candidates don’t even bother to advertise here.
California’s place in the Democratic
column grew even more solid during this year, as the state's Democrats
registered several hundred thousand more voters during the fall than
Republicans, who talked a lot about outreach, but did very little actual
reaching. The state GOP sank below 30 percent of all registered voters for the
first time ever, while Democrats moved up to about 44 percent, with most of the
rest declaring no party preference.
It’s not that California votes mean
little; it’s just that the preponderance go Democratic and everyone knows it in
advance. So how to give California voters as much clout as folks in Ohio, who
are pestered non-stop during election season, both in person and
electronically?
It’s plain how to make the California
presidential primary more important: Move it back up into early February, like
it was four years ago when this state went pretty big for Hillary Clinton and
almost deprived Obama of the Democratic nomination. By scheduling the most
recent primary last June, state legislators almost completely deprived it of
meaning.
The solution for the November general
election, when there's just one Election Day across the nation, is not so
obvious, but California has already made a move in the right direction.
That came with little public attention
in August, 2011, when Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bipartisan bill placing this
state in the forefront of the National Popular Vote movement, the measure
sponsored by the then-chairmen of both the Republican and Democratic caucuses
in the state Assembly.
If it ever becomes effective, this
plan would lessen the emphasis on the Electoral College that causes candidates
to concentrate their efforts on just a few swing states. It would also prevent
situations like the George W. Bush vs. Albert Gore outcome of 2000, when Gore
won half a million more votes nationally, only to lose the presidency in the
Electoral College.
The idea is for states to pledge all
their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the national popular vote.
The plan was adopted by the Legislature in both 2009 and 2010, but vetoed twice
by former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. It commits California to vote with the
national popular majority, but not until states with a total of 270 electoral
votes agree to it. So far, with places like Illinois, Massachusetts, Washington
state, and Maryland aboard, the plan is halfway to its threshold level. So far
all nine states signed on are “blue” – the went Democratic in this month’s
vote. Like California, none of the others got much attention from presidential
candidates.
This plan would make an extra vote in
heavily Democratic San Francisco or Los Angeles or heavily Republican Madera or
Orange counties count as much as one in Kent, Ohio – not the case today. It
would force candidates to campaign everywhere, something presidential aspirants
did as recently as 1970, when Republican Richard Nixon visited 49 states and
Democratic rival George McGovern went to 48.
Then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger
claimed this plan might deprive Californians of the clout their sheer numbers
should command. He was wrong about that, as he was about many other things.
For Californians have no presidential
clout these days because they are preponderantly loyal to one party.
Ironically, that also renders the other party’s votes almost meaningless.
Put all voters everywhere on an equal
basis, and candidates would have to spend time in the most populous places
rather than merely chase electoral votes. That can only be good for California
and almost all other parts of America.
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Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
Based on the current mix of states that have enacted the National Popular Vote compact, it could take about 25 states to reach the 270
ReplyDeleteelectoral votes needed to activate the compact.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions
(including California) with 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
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