CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2021, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“CENSUS RESULTS: CALIFORNIA MAY YET
RESCUE HOUSE DEMOS”
On first
glance, and also at first gloat, it appeared that California’s impending
first-time-ever loss of one seat in Congress might ensure that Democrats lose
the small majority they now hold in the House of Representatives, letting
Republicans veto almost everything President Biden might want to do.
But
conventional wisdom and first gloats are often not what they seem. The details
sometimes end up overcoming false initial assumptions.
First,
the gloats. One came from state GOP chair Jessica Millan Patterson, she who
never had a critical word for ex-President Donald Trump even as he led her
party to staggering electoral defeats in California.
Said
Patterson, “California Republicans have a better vision (than Democrats) and
we’re going to…take back Congress and make the right Californian (Bakersfield’s
Kevin McCarthy) speaker of the House.”
Maybe so,
maybe not. Republicans crowed for much of the last six months that razor-thin
victories in four House races last year portend future big gains for the GOP.
That’s
where the details come in. One of those details is that Democrats now outnumber
Republicans almost 2-1 among registered voters in this state, an unprecedented
margin. Almost one-fourth of the electorate still refuses to declare a party
preference when signing up to vote. The majority of no party preference voters
(NPPs) have consistently chosen Democrats over Republicans in past elections.
These
details matter because of the shuffle that will come from dividing California
into 52 congressional districts, not 53. Geographically, every district in
California will get slightly larger. In big cities, this could mean district
lines shift by a few blocks. In rural areas, the change could amount to miles.
No one knows exactly where new district boundaries will lie, pending the
arrival of more Census information this summer.
And
there’s another detail to consider: While California did not lose population
over the last decade, gaining about 6.4 percent (just behind the national rate
of a bit more than 7 percent), there was movement, mostly from coastal areas
with the most expensive real estate to inland areas where homes generally cost
less.
Some
district lines must now move eastward to
accommodate those changes.
To assess
the likely impact of these shifts, go back to the nearly 2-1 deficit the GOP
suffers among registered voters.
When
geographic lines shift, they always toss some voters into districts held by
politicians those voters never previously knew or supported. Most voters getting
shuffled will be Democrats or NPPs. So along with the slight geographic
changes, clumps of voters will also be thrown from one district into another.
This
means the electorate in districts the GOP flipped narrowly last year – margins
varied from about 300 votes to about 8,000 – will be different from what it has
been.
The most
important difference will be that, on average, each district will likely see a
slightly higher percentage of Democratic voters than before. Because of today’s
registration numbers, that’s inevitable when voters displaced by the
disappearance of one district get distributed into others.
Shifts in
the electorate will also occur because of that west-to-east population
movement. Will the current 8th District, covering the High Desert
area of San Bernardino County and stretching toward Mono Lake, remain as
solidly Republican as it is today? Or will the new district in that area
(perhaps bearing a different number), soon contain parts of the city of San
Bernardino, adding a component of Democrats?
Even the
non-partisan state redistricting commission can’t yet know the answers, because
no one has precise information on which to base a new configuration.
All of
which means the Republican gloating about the Census (whose results so far
contain few surprises) may be premature. For the margins by which they
recovered those four previously longtime GOP-held districts may no longer exist
under the state’s new reapportionment plan.
So
Democrats might have a chance to gain ground in the House, rather than losing
control. Any shift back to the Democrats in just two or three of the districts
they briefly held could have national consequences in a narrowly divided
Congress.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias at
tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough, The Most Promising
Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It" is now
available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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