CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, JANUARY 26, 2024, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“REEPS MAY
PUT GARVEY INTO SENATE RUNOFF”
The three
prominent congressional Democrats in the running for the U.S. Senate seat long
held by the late and formidable Dianne Feinstein act as if they believe an
all-Democrat November runoff is inevitable.
But that
may not happen.
None of
the three contesting Congress members – not Adam Schiff of Burbank, Katie
Porter of Irvine or Barbara Lee of Oakland – so much as acknowledges that
Republican Steve Garvey is in the running.
But polls
that startle some Democrats show Garvey now running second in this four-horse
primary race despite his lack of much television advertising and his dearth of
high-profile campaigning.
That’s
because Garvey, formerly an all-star first baseman who helped first the Los
Angeles Dodgers and later the San Diego Padres into the World Series, possesses
more name recognition than all three Democrats combined.
Yes,
that’s even true for Schiff, who led two impeachment efforts against former
President Donald Trump, becoming a national Democratic hero in the process.
Garvey’s
name recognition allows him to take advantage of the simple math that governs
many California primary elections, especially those at the statewide level like
this one.
That
arithmetic says almost half of all registered voters call themselves Democrats,
while about one-fourth list themselves with no party preference (NPP) and
another quarter identify as Republicans.
In a
typical primary, slightly over half the NPP voters end up casting ballots for
Republicans. Because the GOP has lately included very few politicians of major
prominence, those votes have usually been splintered. But the latest surveys
show Garvey, a political neophyte at 75,
has managed to gain support from most Republicans. So the GOP vote will
likely not be as divided as it often is in the election that begins soon, when
mail ballots arrive in most mailboxes.
But the
Democrats will be as fractured as ever. A January poll conducted for Politico
and Morning Consult showed Schiff leading the field with 26 percent support to
14 percent for Porter and Lee with 12 percent. Meanwhile, Garvey snuck into
second place in this survey at 15 percent, meaning he’s getting about 60
percent of all GOP support. As the primary grows closer, Garvey figures to draw
more support away from other Republicans like the initial GOP leader, lawyer
and die-hard Donald Trump backer Eric Early.
Schiff’s
lead in the Politico/Morning Consult survey was his largest in any poll yet, as
many voters listed earlier as undecided began to make up their minds.
He also
differentiated himself from the field by refusing to call for an early
cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war, saying he agrees with Israeli politicians
who say the fighting must continue until Hamas is decimated.
Meanwhile,
Garvey has hinted at a similar stance. But he has spoken mostly in
generalities, not pretending to be a political expert.
Because
most Schiff stances are congruent with those of Porter and Lee, with only a
shade of difference on the Middle East, chances are Schiff would have little
trouble consolidating former Porter and Lee supporters behind him in the
November vote, even if Garvey becomes the first Republican in 10 years to make
a California Senate runoff ballot.
Even with
millions of voters still undecided, the three Democrats combine to draw support
from more than 50 percent of likely voters today. That phenomenon figures to
turn into a majority of about 60 percent for whichever Democrat makes the
runoff, if just one does.
But if
two Democrats make it through to November, the fall race could be much tighter
than if it involves a Republican.
For that
would likely mean either Porter or Lee would be contesting Schiff, and either
figures to draw a large groundswell of support from liberal women.
All of
which means this race should only grow more interesting and lively as the
primary nears and the contest then moves toward November. The eventual outcome
is easily predictable if just one Democrat makes the runoff, but very difficult
to forecast if the ultimate matchup pits two Democrats against each other in a
third consecutive California Senate race.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias
at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most
Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,"
is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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