CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2018 OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“GENDER GAP THE KEY TO DEMS’ AIMS IN CONGRESS”
The most dramatic news in the year’s first big round of
political polling, out a few days ago, was that Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, once the
prohibitive leader in the run for governor, has fallen into a virtual tie for
first place with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in the
seven-candidate field of significant candidates.
Villaraigosa has gained about 10 percentage points in the
survey of the Public Policy Institute of California since serious campaigning
began at mid-2017, while the former San Francisco Mayor Newsom lost about five
points and other candidates showed no significant gains.
That’s somewhat ironic in this year of #MeToo revelations
of sexual harassment in politics and business, since both ex-mayors have had
well-publicized sexual incidents that both say they now deeply regret.
The poll findings become more ironic when paired with the
details of an almost simultaneous poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of
Government Studies (IGS).
That survey, examining two long-Republican Southern California
congressional districts that are now in serious play, found a large gender gap
that’s likely to be duplicated in the other five or six districts where
Democrats hope to flip seats in November. These races are vital to the current
strong Democratic hopes of retaking control in the House of Representatives for
the first time this decade.
Republican congressional incumbents are unpopular all over
California, found the IGS survey, heir to the polling organization of the
longtime, but now defunct, Field Poll. That’s no surprise when the GOP
congressional majority steadfastly does President Trump’s bidding at a time
when his approval rating in the nation’s largest state sits at just 29 percent.
The IGS study concentrated on two very different districts
with previously secure Republican incumbents. In the coastal Orange County
district of Dana Rohrabacher, who has held the seat 30 years, he gets an
approval rating of just 38 percent, while 51 percent of voters there say they
are inclined to vote against him, no matter which Democrat he might face this
fall. They indicated they are more influenced by national issues than local
concerns.
It’s much the same in the variegated district of Steve
Knight, stretching from ultra-suburban Simi Valley in Ventura County through
booming Santa Clarita to the high desert area around Palmdale, where Knight was
once a city councilman. The two-term congressman gets a mere 37 percent
job-approval rating, while 56 percent of his constituent voters say they oppose
his reelection.
Most striking among the components of those big
disapprovals is the gender gap. In Rohrabacher’s district, 59 percent of women
voters said they lean toward opposing his reelection, while an almost identical
60 percent of women voters in Knight’s district say they won’t vote for him.
Those are huge edges, not easily erased when national
Republicans, including Trump, strongly oppose abortion and the environmental
and workplace safety and fairness issues generally favored by women. And when
Trump refuses to condemn former White House staffer accused of domestic abuse.
While Rohrabacher voted against Trump’s tax changes, which
set a $10,000 cap on what individuals or couples can deduct for state and local
taxes (well below the amount of property tax paid by many residents of both districts),
Knight is paying for backing that bill. About 32 percent of voters – most of
them women – said that vote inclined them to oppose him. Meanwhile,
Rohrabacher’s disapproval among women was strengthened by his votes to cripple
the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare.
Like other Republicans in contested districts, Rohrabacher
and Knight also trail Democratic opponents in fundraising.
There’s a strong likelihood these poll findings on Knight
and Rohrabacher come close to matching the feelings in several other districts.
Said IGS poll director Mark DiCamillo, the former Field
Poll chief, “Republicans should be worried about the effect Trump is having on
California. There’s an undercurrent that what’s happening in Washington is
negatively affecting California.”
His survey suggests it’s a strong tide, not merely an
undercurrent. And the strongest component is the firm anti-Republican sentiment
Trump has aroused among women voters in this state – who will also help decide
the futures of Newsom and Villaraigosa.
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Email
Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough:
The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch
It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias
columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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