CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, JANUARY 10, 2025, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“EXPECT NEWSOM TO START HIS WISHED-FOR RUN FOR PREZ”
Gov. Gavin Newsom has
steadfastly denied any interest in becoming president for as long as he’s been
in office. But any California governor becomes a presidential possibility from
the moment of being elected, like it or not.
That’s what an almost
automatic 54 electoral votes will do for (or to) you when you’re in the top
office of this almost nation-state, one that’s used to making its own policies
on energy and the environment, abortion and just about anything else you can mention.
Even foreign policy, where California has signed no treaties with other
countries and large foreign provinces, but has plenty of “memoranda of
understanding.”
Now, for the first time in
his almost 30 years in politics, Newsom might have a clear path to seek
national office without having to contest against a stablemate. That’s what he
and outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris have been since both began as proteges
of former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, with Newsom usually making way for
Harris.
But those days are done. The
national electorate has told Harris it won’t elect her president, even when her
party’s nomination is handed to her without so much as winning a single primary
election or caucus.
For some, Newsom was already
leading the opposition to President-elect Donald Trump many months before Trump
assumes office.
That was one reason for his
calling a special November and December session of the Legislature to push
through methods and funding to counter Trump’s outspoken threats against
California.
These include withholding
federal relief funds after wildfires and earthquakes, trying to restrict or
countermand California’s abortion availability, mass deportations of
undocumented immigrants (without many of whom California’s economy would likely
be in shambles due to labor shortages) and countermanding California climate
policies that have steadily improved the state’s air quality since the 1970s.
Unlike any other potential
2028 presidential contender, Newsom long ago made himself into a bit of a
national Democratic spokesman. He campaigned in more states than anyone else
for outgoing President Joe Biden, before Biden handed the nomination over to
Harris. He debated California-baiting governor of Florida on network
television. He set pandemic policies for California that were widely copied
elsewhere. No other Democratic prospect today has his prominence.
Trump tacitly acknowledges
this by making Newsom the only Democratic governor to whom he applies one of
his trademark derogatory nicknames: “New-scum.”
All this sets up Newsom for a
2028 run of his own, even though that future is a bit cloudy, since Trump
during his campaign steadfastly evaded answering when asked if he would cede
power peacefully when his second term ends in early 2029. His vigorous efforts
to stay on after being voted out in 2000 resulted in a recently abandoned
prosecution, and no one knows how the nation would respond to a second effort
to stay on beyond his time limit.
Had Harris won last fall,
Newsom would now face a political dead end, with California’s two Senate seats
fully occupied until at least 2028 and no possibility of seeking a third term
as governor. The soonest he could have run for president would have been 2032,
and even then, it’s doubtful America would elect two consecutive San Francisco
liberals.
But now Newsom gets to move
on while Harris is likely sidelined. Rejected last November, she could not
assert any supposed right to insist that Newsom step aside for her.
He will never say so, but in
a way, all this makes the 2024 election outcome almost ideal for Newsom. He
scores points with Democrats nationally every time Trump insults him. He will
have the last two years of his term to establish a record of resisting Trump at
every turn, successful or not. He will also have an opportunity to address
state Democratic Party conventions all over the country, if he likes.
Once his term in Sacramento
ends, he can campaign for two years without interruption or other duties. It’s
almost a perfect script for a would-be president, very similar to what fellow
Californian Ronald Reagan experienced between 1976 and 1980, when he was first
elected to the top national office.
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