HOW CALIFORNIA RANKS AS THE MOST ACTIVE POLITICAL STATE

 

CALIFORNIA FOCUS

FOR RELEASE:TUESDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2024, OR THEREAFTER

 

BY THOMAS D. ELIAS

“HOW CALIFORNIA RANKS AS THE MOST ACTIVE POLITICAL STATE”

 

California has not been a swing state in presidential politics since 1992, when it switched from Republican red to Democratic blue while its electoral votes made Bill Clinton the president.

 

But this vast state, far larger in population than No. 2 Texas and almost as large geographically as virtually empty Alaska, turns out to be the nation’s most politically active state.

 

That will play out strongly at home for the next two years, as a field featuring many Democrats and very possibly Republican Chad Bianco, the often vocal sheriff of Riverside County, joust for position while running to replace Democrat Gavin Newsom in the governor’s office.

 

It's unlikely a GOP hopeful like Bianco can win the office in a state where registered Democratic voters hugely outnumber Republicans, a state which has not put a Republican in statewide office since muscleman actor Arnold Schwarzenegger won reelection in 2006

 

 But as former baseball great Steve Garvey did in this year's Senate race, a candidate like Bianco could make the 2026 runoff election if he were the sole Republican running in that year’s June primary election. Also like Garvey, Bianco or any other Republican in such a race would almost certainly be little more than a sacrificial lamb.

 

How, then, does California rank as American’s most politically active state, especially when it numbers just 29^th in the percentage of eligible voters who actually submit ballots?

 

Turns out money and activism togethere pushed this state to the top of the political activity list in a new study from the WalletHub website, which specializes in demographic trends.

 

Californians were 14th in the percentage of registered voters (as opposed to folks who are eligible) who actually turned out in 2020 and about the same last month, when they decided the fate of 10 statewide ballot propositions and hundreds of local measures. California ranked eighth in total political contributions per voting age citizen, much of the money going to presidential candidates or people running for the House and Senate in other states. Democratic Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar got more money from California than any two other states aside from her own. The same for both Democrat Collin Allred and incumbent Republican Ted Cruz in Texas. And so on.

 

Plenty of bucks also went to candidates in the six most hotly contested congressional races in this state, where Republicans won just enough seats to control the House of Representatives for the next two years.

 

But the big propulsion to the top spot in political activity was where Californians ranked in civic engagement. One measure: Among Democrats, more than 12,000 volunteers ponied up their own postage money and their time to write and send anywhere from 100 to 1,000 handwritten postcards apiece to potential voters in swing states where just a few hundred or a few thousand votes had the potential to decide who would be the next president.

 

Add in the top ranking in voter accessibility policies, like sending a mail-in ballot to every registered voter and placing drop boxes in convenient locations in every part of the state.

 

Merely being a swing state because party preference is fairly evenly split was not enough to propel any other state to the top in political engagement.

 

WalletHub found only two of the seven major swing states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina) were among the most politically engaged. States like Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia and New Jersey were among the top tier in political engagement despite being solidly in the camp of one party or the other.

 

Turnout was affected in a major way this fall by where states ranked in political engagement. The more engaged,  the higher the percentage of registered voters actually casting ballots.

 

The exception to this was California, where political engagement and availability of ballots and ballot boxes was high, but turnout overall was nevertheless only about two-thirds, pretty much the same as in 2020, when this state went heavily for Joe Biden over Donald Trump.

 

The bottom line: California’s size did not prevent it from being the most politically engaged state in America. And California voters – with their interstate activism and cash donations, probably did influence some races far beyond this state’s borders.

 

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    Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net