CALIFORNIA
FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2017, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“ONE YEAR OUT – BIG ELECTION YEAR ON TAP FOR DEMOCRATS, NOT GOP”
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2017, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“ONE YEAR OUT – BIG ELECTION YEAR ON TAP FOR DEMOCRATS, NOT GOP”
Pity the poor California Republican
Party. While its national brethren control both houses of Congress and the
White House and might as well control the U.S. Supreme Court, chances are no
California Republican will even make next November’s ballot in either of the
top-of-ticket races
whose
outcome will be known about one year from today.
It’s quite the opposite for California
Democrats, who exert even more control here than Republicans do in Washington,
D.C. While it looks like the next year will be dreary for the state GOP, trying
desperately to hold onto the meager 14 California congressional seats it now
holds, multiple Democrats lead all polls and fundraising in the race to become
California’s next governor – perhaps the second most powerful job in America. So
far, only Democrats are among major prospects to oppose longtime California
Democratic grandee Dianne Feinstein for the Senate seat she’s long held in what
promises to become a classic intraparty spat.
Even in down-the-ticket races, it’s
similar. Example: It now looks like the November runoff for attorney general
will match the appointed incumbent Xavier Becerra and current state Insurance
Commissioner Dave Jones, who did not flinch or drop out when Gov. Jerry Brown last
year named veteran Congressman Becerra to replace new Democratic Sen. Kamala
Harris.
No significant Republican candidate
has yet risen for any statewide office except governor, where Orange County
Assemblyman Travis Allen and Republican businessman John Cox both hope ballot
initiative fights can propel them to the ballot.
Allen seeks to ride a tide he believes
will lead to repeal of the state’s new environmentally-motivated gasoline tax
increase, while Cox is again pushing a measure that would expand the
Legislature a thousandfold.
No one knows yet if either putative
proposition will draw the fervent support these men hope for, but others have
ridden initiatives into office, an example being ex-Gov. Pete Wilson, who
attached himself to the 1994 Proposition 187, which aimed to take almost all
privileges away from undocumented immigrants, including emergency room service
and public schooling. Most of its provisions were later tossed out by federal
courts, but the vast majority of the 65 percent of Californians who backed 187
also voted for Wilson as he beat former state Treasurer Kathleen Brown, sister
of the current governor.
Because both Allen and Cox have polled
in the vicinity of 8 percent in every major survey, if Republicans want a spot
on the gubernatorial runoff ballot, they will likely need to convince one or
the other to bow out. Things could get even tougher for them if Chad Mayes, the
former leader of GOP members of the state Assembly, makes good on a hint he
will also run.
In the land of political egos, though, it can be
difficult to get determined candidates to quit a race merely out of party
loyalty. Meanwhile, both leading Democrats in the race, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom
and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, poll at least as much as Cox and
Allen together. In the land of Top Two primaries, that almost guarantees an
all-Democrat race even if one Republican drops out.
Over on the Senate side, only
Democrats so far have mounted anything like credible early campaigns against
Feinstein. There is as yet no public polling on this race, but no Republican
figure with name recognition akin to what Kevin de Leon acquired during three
years leading the state Senate has entered the race. Meanwhile, Democratic
billionaire Tom Steyer, mulling a Senate run, can write himself a check for however
much he wants or needs.
It’s true that largely self-funded
candidates aside from muscleman movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger have not had
much luck seeking California office. The defeated include former Northwest
Airlines chief Al (Checkbook) Checchi, financier William Simon, Hewlett Packard
CEO Meg Whitman and shipping heir William Matson Roth.
Unlike them, Steyer, with the large
mailing list of his NextGen environmental organization readily at hand, would
have no trouble raising significant money from others.
Put it all together, and it looks like
many California Republicans will be mostly occupied in the next year staving
off congressional challenges fueled by massive California hostility toward
President Trump and anyone backing his agenda.
This should keep the races for top
offices largely in the hands of Democrats, who could have major intra-party
warfare.
-30-
Elias is author of the current book “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government's Campaign to Squelch It,” now available in an updated third edition. His email address is tdelias@aol.com
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