CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2022, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“STATE GOP'S HAPPY TALK CAN’T ERASE
PARTY’S IRRELEVANCE”
California’s
Republican Party doesn’t have to be irrelevant, but it likely will remain so
for years to come.
That’s
because if nothing else, this month’s election returns show that party identification
matters a lot, and registered GOP voters are outnumbered in this state 47-23
percent, exceeded for the first time by No Party Preference folks, now tallying
24 percent of registrations.
Even with
one state Senate seat and four slots in the Assembly undecided a week after the
Nov. 8 vote, Republican legislators could be assured they will have zero
influence when it comes to state taxes and other public policy.
That’s
because despite having those five seats up in the air, Democrats had already clinched
two-thirds majorities in both legislative houses, all that’s needed to levy new
taxes, override gubernatorial vetoes and make some proposals effective
immediately rather than waiting until year’s end.
Even when
statewide Republican candidates are plainly better qualified, non-controversial
and win endorsements right and left, they still lose. That’s what happened to
the GOP’s well liked Lanhee Chen, a Stanford University faculty member who lost
handily in his run for state controller this fall despite endorsements from
every significant newspaper and TV station that bothered making them.
None of
this stopped the GOP’s state chair Jessica Millan Patterson from sounding like
her party won on Election Night. “We’re doing great,” she told a reporter. “Our
candidates are doing better than they have in years.”
But the
only place the GOP made even slight progress was in Orange County, where
redistricting has made some seats easier upset targets than they were as
recently as two years ago. Redistricting is the reason Buena Park’s Soo Hoo was
only slightly behind incumbent Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva, a
former Fullerton mayor, a few days post-election in a district overlapping the
Los Angeles-Orange county line.
It is
also why Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter was only about 5,000 votes up on
former Orange County Republican chairman Scott Baugh at the same moment, and
why two-term Democratic Oceanside Rep. Mike Levin was in a closer-than-expected
contest with repeat challenger Brian Maryott in their district covering parts
of both San Diego and Orange counties.
The
percentages of folks voting Democratic and Republican had not changed
significantly since the 2020 vote even in Orange County, but district lines
were different.
That led
to joy and bragging from the GOP, despite its dismal statewide performance, in
which it continued a streak of failing to win even one statewide office since
Arnold Schwarzenegger last ran for governor in 2006. That’s 16 years of
constant failure.
And yet,
Orange County Republican Chairman Fred Whitaker made this statement the day
after the vote, a moment when even there, his party had not flipped a single
state or federal office: “Orange County Republicans had an incredibly strong
showing in last night’s midterm elections…this was a fight we were ready for.”
But for
the most part, even in Orange County, where Republicans traditionally need –
and used to get – 250,000-vote margins in order to have a chance at a statewide
office, the party did not improve its performance beyond what it was gifted in
redistricting.
All of
which means California Republicans have work to do if they want to regain
relevance. If they want to register more Californians as GOP voters, they could
abandon their steadfast opposition to abortion rights, where Proposition 1
passed by a 66-34 percent vote this month, adding such rights to the state
Constitution. That percentage is only slightly larger than the proportion by
which Democratic registered voters outnumber Republicans. The GOP could change
its automatic opposition to any new tax or social benefit program, no matter
its purpose.
It’s also
time top Republicans like Whitaker and Patterson stop their happy talk after
elections where Republicans hold what puny influence they have but gain little
or nothing new. If you’re satisfied with losing consistently, and your only
gains stem from redistricting, your party will never regain much influence.
Meanwhile,
responsible two-party government demands a loyal opposition capable of checking
strongly ideological approaches to problems by the majority party.
So far,
the California GOP has not come close to becoming even that.
-30-
Email Thomas Elias at
tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough, The Most Promising
Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It" is now
available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, visit www.californiafocus.net
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